In the next twenty years, artificial intelligence will affect almost all professions, transforming some or replacing others. How high will the wave be? What will be left for humans? How can we find our place in a robotic world of work? Investigation.
His name is Watson. The announcement of his arrival in the agencies, four years ago, has flanked a hell of a scare to the unions of Credit Mutuel. Watson is an artificial intelligence (AI) solution born at IBM, a crack capable of en answering questions in natural language, which in 2011 crushed the strong themes of”Jeopardy! ” Questions for a Champion” American. The mutual bank is the one that has developed this AI solution the most. Orange Bank or Generali have since followed suit.
Deployed for three years,Watson now assists 25,000 in 5,000 Credit Mutuel and CIC agencies. This super assistant processes 300,000 customer requests each day, which he follows with a response recommendation. . Another skill is to help find information in the en bank’s documentary base, with a natural language interface. Each Watson proposal is evaluated by the (green or redclick): ) : continuous learning that continuously increases its reliability.
“The programme has no impact on employment,” Claude Bailer, president of the SNB CFE-CGC section of Credit Mutuel, said today. And it should save the advisors fifteen to twenty minutes a day, which is nice.. But we remain vigilant in the medium term.” According to the management, which spends 40 million euros over five years,Watson will free “200,000 days/man, that’s the equivalent of 200,000 working days over five years, a saving EUR 60 million across the programme .” l’ensemble Or the equivalent of 1,000 employees over a year. While Credit Mutuel has chosen to use Watson as an en activity assistance tool, others such as the troubled Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) or the Japanese insurer Fukoku have installed it well to delete posts. .
The arrival of IBM’s flagship program in a large mutual bank illustrates the hopes for efficiency and the mixed fears about the use of AI solutions in the world of work. Artificial intelligence is one of the bricks of automation of tasks,already at work for years in industry, banking, mass distribution, etc. It adds tremendous computing power and the exploitation of huge data masses, as well as the ability to learn (machine learning), which allow, for example, to create virtual assistants of our smartphones (voice recognition and natural language), chatbots, visualrecognition…
The AI that develops the most today is indeed the so-called “weak”one: it does not know how to decode implicit knowledge, much less hidden or figurative senses, only sens performs very specific tasks for which it has been programmed, is not self-aware … All these capabilities would constitute a “strong AI“, which is not for tomorrow according to the researchers.
Nevertheless, artificial intelligence is only progressing in a number of sectors: writing standardized acts among lawyers, document research, en reviewing thousands of CVs per second in human resources, automation of trading… Watson – again himself – was also hired in an American hospital where he helps oncologists to make faster diagnoses and treatments for their patients.
Fears founded or not
What to worry about seriously about his job? “For sure, many jobs will be affected,” confirms Erwann Tison, economist at the think tank Institut Sapiens, which has just published The Robots, My Job and Me (Eska Editions). A trade is considered to be at risk as 70% of the tasks associated with it can be automated.. But even below, many will be heavily transformed. And, unlike previous industrial revolutions, the lowest-skilled jobs will not be the only ones affected.”.”
Economists have long been working on the overall impact of AI on employment, with a variety of predictions: from 47% of job losses in the United States, according to a 1993 Oxford study, to 14% in the 15 to d’Oxford 20 years to come, according to the OECD last year (16.4% in France). In France, the Employment Guidance Council (ECC) puts forward slightly peu more modest figures with 10% of vulnerable jobs and 50% of jobs that will not disappear but will be significantly impacted.
Some American (willrobotstakemyjob.com) or French simulators like the site -robot.fr allow to be afraid (orou not). The latter en assesses the risk of disappearance of 242 occupations according to several criteria (penalty, attractiveness, complexity, need for human relations, average salary, number Jobs). According to him, doctors or lawyers are not immune. As for accountants or internal auditors, the eye of the cyclone would not be far away! The handlers, office and management secretaries, bank employees, insurance employees or cashiers, whose numbers have already been falling for thirty years, are threatened in the short term.
A humaine planned human conversion
Foresight is a difficult art and the worst is never safe.. But a Schumpeterian revolution – the famous “creative destruction” – at the end of which jobs will have disappeared to make way for others,still largely unknown, is in no doubt, no matter how violent and widespread it may be. “The real question is what we’re doing now,” says Erwann Tison. What policy for the job market, to accompany the generation that will be impacted? “Tax on robots? Universal income, possibly temporary? Politicians will have to quickly look at ways to support the coming wave.
The OECD is already recommending that its members prepare for retraining assistance and”support for those affected by jobcuts”, as well as give a serious boost to continuing education. A need already expressed by many employees. “But companies don’t yet know how to approach this topic with them, which adds to the concerns,” says Cécile Dejoux, professor at Cnam and chair director Learning Lab. Its last MOOC (massive open online race), which took place from January to June 2019, had no trouble recruiting 10,000 registered..
They want to understand how AI will apply to their profession, how work organization and management will be affected, and what skills – including their soft skills, human and relational qualities as automatons don’t know how to imitate yet – they will have to develop. Finland,which has just left the European Presidency, is leaving a part of the way. It will en provide online training “Elements of AI” developed by the University of Helsinki and already made available to Finnish citizens as early as this year, and in all EU languages. .